Breast cancer mortality in Mexico: an age-period-cohort analysis.

OBJECTIVE To assess the age, period and cohort effects on breast cancer (BC) mortality in Mexico. MATERIAL AND METHODS Age, period and cohort curvature trends for BC mortality were estimated through the Poisson Regression model proposed by Holford. RESULTS Nationally, BC death rates have leveled off since 1995 in most age groups. BC mortality trends are mainly determined by birth cohort and age effects in Mexico. Women born between 1940 and 1955 show the highest rate of increase in BC mortality. Women born afterwards still show an increasing trend but at a much lower rate. Mammography and adjuvant therapy have had a limited impact on mortality. Potential reasons for observed patterns are discussed. An increase in BC mortality in Mexico is expected in the following decades. CONCLUSIONS Mammography screening programs and timely access to effective treatment should be a national priority to reverse the expected increasing BC mortality trend.